Dec 8th, 2024
In the aftermath of a significant market rally spurred by Donald Trump's victorious run in the presidential election, stock futures have remained relatively unchanged as of Wednesday night. Traders and investors now await the Federal Reserve's crucial interest rate decision, scheduled for Thursday afternoon, which could significantly influence market trends.
Bitcoin, alongside the U.S. dollar and bank stocks, experienced notable gains as part of the positive momentum in Wednesday's post-election activities. Conversely, several international funds and solar stocks faltered, likely due to investor concerns regarding the potential adverse impacts of the President-elect's future policy direction.
Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X ETFs, observed, "The results are in and the financial markets can breathe a little easier without concern over a prolonged election process. Investors should still be cautious about over- and underreaction to geopolitical news. These events can typically cause large swings in asset prices, but fundamentals will win out over time."
Market participants are now focusing on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision and the subsequent press conference by Chair Jerome Powell. According to CME Group’s Fed Watch tool, there is a 100% probability that the Fed will opt for a rate cut during this meeting, marking the second consecutive interest rate reduction following September's cut—the first since 2020.
Thursday morning will also include noteworthy economic data on jobless claims and wholesale inventories. Prominent corporate earnings reports, including those from Moderna and Warner Bros. Discovery, are set for release before the market opens, while Block, Pinterest, and Rivian are scheduled to announce their results later in the day.
The recent election outcomes have also contributed to rising Treasury yields, influencing perceptions of how assertive the Federal Reserve might be in managing interest rates throughout the winter. Currently, the fed funds rate, the benchmark for overnight bank lending rates, stands between 4.75% and 5.0%.
The anticipated result of Thursday's Federal Reserve meeting is believed to be a quarter-percentage point rate cut—equivalent to 25 basis points. The market also indicates a 71% likelihood of another comparable cut in December, a slight dip from 77% the previous day and 72% a week prior.
Looking further ahead to January, expectations for an additional rate cut have shifted due to the electoral results. The CME FedWatch tool currently suggests that market sentiment is leaning towards no change in interest rates for January. The probability of a January rate cut has decreased to 29%, down from 41% the prior Wednesday and 45% a week earlier, while the chance that rates will remain unchanged has increased to 54%, compared to 48% on Wednesday and 44% a week earlier.
Among stocks that demonstrated significant movements in extended trading, futures tied to the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 traded marginally above the flat line. This stability follows the substantial post-election rally seen in the previous session, indicating cautious optimism as the Federal Reserve’s decision looms large.
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