Oct 27th, 2024
In an encouraging turn for the Chinese economy, the renminbi ascended to its strongest position in over a year, while Chinese equities continued their upward trajectory on Wednesday. This resurgence followed the announcement of a comprehensive policy package that has revitalized investor confidence amid ongoing economic headwinds.
Investors and analysts are optimistic, pointing to a more resolute policy approach to boost the economy, alongside a global trend toward lower interest rates and appealing asset valuations that enhance the attractiveness of Chinese financial assets. These factors suggest a potential surge in foreign investment inflows over the next few months. Nonetheless, experts warn that such prospects hinge on sustained policy actions to tackle key economic hurdles, notably through increased fiscal spending to drive domestic demand and targeted interventions to stabilize the property sector.
On Wednesday, notable market activity saw the Chinese yuan, or renminbi, appreciating to 6.9951 against the US dollar in the offshore market—its first rally past the 7-per-dollar mark in 16 months. This 158-basis-point increase from the previous close was attributed to the firm policy announcement and the US Federal Reserve's latest interest rate cut, which reduced the yield gap between US and Chinese bonds.
Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOCI China, remarked that while the renminbi may continue to fluctuate against the dollar, the potential for drastic appreciation remains limited due to uncertainties regarding the Fed’s rate adjustments. Furthermore, the People's Bank of China stands ready to intervene if necessary to prevent any excessive exchange rate volatility.
Buoyancy was similarly reflected in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.16 percent to close at 2,896.31 points on Wednesday, extending a significant 4.15 percent jump the day before—the largest increase witnessed in approximately four years.
David Chao, Invesco's global market strategist for the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, expressed confidence that now might be an opportune moment to consider investments in Chinese stocks. He emphasized the significance of China’s robust monetary stimulus measures that could potentially infuse substantial liquidity into the economy.
The recent policy enactments, unveiled by top financial regulators in China, represent what some analysts consider the most substantial monetary stimulus since the pandemic. Key measures included a 20-basis-point decrease in the seven-day reverse repo rate and a 50-basis-point deduction in both existing mortgage rates and the reserve requirement ratio.
Taking swift action, the People's Bank of China implemented these measures by reducing the one-year medium-term lending facility rate by 30 basis points to two percent on Wednesday. A report by Goldman Sachs underscored the potential of this stimulus package to ignite a policy-driven rally in Chinese and Hong Kong-listed shares, though it cautioned against expecting a fundamental economic turnaround solely based on these measures.
The introduction of a relending program could provide cost-effective funding for listed companies, aiming to support stock prices and enhance investor morale. Additionally, discussions around a potential stock stabilization fund could help mitigate systemic risks, drawing lessons from international markets.
In parallel to these monetary measures, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued guidelines encouraging mergers and acquisitions and revised rules to improve market capitalization management of listed companies. Analysts anticipate further policy action could enhance investment prospects, particularly if signs of property market stability emerge.
Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Bank, emphasized the critical role of fiscal support in supplementing monetary policy efforts. There is a likelihood for increased government bond issuance to accelerate public spending, which could favorably impact investor confidence if such measures include reducing home inventory.
Finally, Standard Chartered Bank's analysts forecast that the renminbi could remain within the 7 to 7.1 range against the dollar by year’s end, contingent upon continued policy momentum and economic conditions.
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